In the first half of the year, viscose staple fiber reappeared "Yiqi Juechen", is there any suspense about the development trend?
As a viscose staple fiber whose prices have risen against the trend in the context of the overall decline in chemical fiber product prices last year, it still performed well in the first half of this year. Since the beginning of the year, the price of viscose staple fiber has shown an oscillating upward trend as a whole, and sales volume has also grown at a growth rate of 5% to 8% compared with the same period last year.
As for the viscose staple fiber market in the second half of the year, some people in the industry said that due to the following reasons, the viscose staple fiber market in the second half of the year may remain optimistic as a whole.
First of all, under the influence of the Hangzhou G20 summit, the suspension or production restriction of viscose staple fiber enterprises may become a short-term catalyst for the rise of viscose prices; secondly, August ~October is the peak sales season for core-spun yarn products, which may promote the increase in the amount of viscose staple fiber in northern Jiangsu; at the same time, the depreciation of the renminbi is expected to drive a significant increase in viscose staple fiber exports and downstream textile demand.
1 The overall market oscillated upward in the first half of the year
In the first half of the year, the market for viscose staple fiber was relatively good, and the price showed an upward trend as a whole.
In January, the price of viscose staple fiber showed an overall downward trend. At the beginning of this month, viscose manufacturers introduced Spring Festival maintenance plans one after another, and viscose products were mostly shipped at low prices. For example, the price of viscose staple fiber 1.5D product fell and then flattened to 12,450 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, as the Spring Festival holiday approached, transactions weakened, and the quotations of product manufacturers rose slightly.
From February to March, the price of viscose staple fiber regained its upward trend, the focus of viscose staple fiber market transactions rose, product prices continued to rise, and downstream manufacturers resumed work after the holiday Also better than expected. At the beginning of February, the price of viscose staple fiber 1.5D product was 12,450 yuan/ton, and at the end of March it rose to 13,680 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 10.95%. Then, due to the impact of cotton futures prices breaking 10,000 yuan, the enthusiasm of downstream stocking was slightly suppressed, and the market's new order trading atmosphere became more rational.
In April, the market for viscose staple fiber was weak. In the first half of the month, viscose staple fiber manufacturers relied on the early signing of orders, and the product prices did not change much. The price of viscose staple fiber began to fall in mid-to-early April, and the resistance of the previous high transaction increased. Under the long-term low production and sales, the company's viscose staple fiber inventory increased slightly. After mid-April, the market price of viscose staple fiber only loosened. From the end of April to the beginning of May, Sateri's Jiujiang viscose staple fiber plant was shut down, and the market supply of viscose staple fiber products was reduced.
From May to June, downstream enterprises of viscose staple fiber are in the centralized stocking period. At the beginning of May, the market transactions of viscose staple fiber mostly increased, the quotations of viscose staple fiber products gradually increased, the downstream gauze market performance was weak, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase viscose staple fiber gradually cooled. On the whole, although the market for viscose staple fiber turned warmer in May, the benefits were limited, resulting in the overall price of viscose staple fiber in a stable consolidation in June.
In July, the cotton futures prices rose strongly at the beginning of the month, and Jiangsu Funing Aoyang Technology Co., Ltd. was shut down due to the tornado, which coincided with downstream manufacturers in a concentrated stocking period. , The market regained its upward trend. Recently, quotations in the viscose staple fiber industry have risen again. On July 12, the quotation of high-end viscose staple fiber products was increased by 300 yuan/ton in the previous period, and then increased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton. The mainstream manufacturers of viscose staple fiber also offered prices from 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton was raised to 14,200 Yuan/ton~14,300 Yuan/ton, and most of the low-end viscose staple fiber manufacturers' quotations were also raised to 14,000 Yuan/ton~14,100 Yuan/ton.
2 The next two years of production capacity or current gap
Viscose "leading" companies also expressed optimism about the viscose market.
Sanyou Chemical said that after more than 4 years of adjustments in the viscose industry, as of the end of 2015, the total production capacity of the viscose staple fiber industry, including ineffective production capacity, was about 3.6 million tons. , But in fact less than 3.1 million tons, and the net increase in viscose staple fiber production capacity in the next two years is probably negative. In the context of the steady growth of downstream demand, there may even be a partial gap in the production capacity of viscose staple fiber by 2018. Therefore, the viscose staple fiber market is expected to continue to rise, and the company continues to be optimistic about the viscose staple fiber industry.
Zhongtai Chemical also expressed that it is optimistic about the development of the company's viscose-spinning business.
Zhongtai Chemical stated that the price of viscose staple fiber will be increased in 2015 due to the country’s increasingly stringent requirements for environmental protection and the slowdown in new viscose staple fiber production capacity. The year bottomed out and rebounded. In 2016, the viscose business was able to maintain a relatively high level of prosperity. In 2015, Zhongtai Chemical added viscose-spinning business. From the first quarter of this year, the average sales price of Zhongtai Chemical's viscose staple fiber increased slightly compared with the same period in 2015. At present, Zhongtai Chemical has a viscose production capacity of 360,000 tons. In the future, through technological transformation, the viscose production capacity will increase to 400,000 tons.
Other companies said that after rapid expansion in the past few years, my country’s viscose staple fiber production capacity has entered a period of slow growth. Judging from the current profitability of the industry, the motivation for large-scale production expansion of enterprises is not strong. In the next two years, the growth rate of new production capacity in the viscose staple fiber industry will be 7% and 5% respectively. The new capacity will be put in orderly, and the annual demand growth rate of viscose staple fiber will be about 7%~8%. The new capacity can be obtained smoothly. Therefore, the viscose staple fiber industry is expected to see a long-term boom in the next two years.
3 The industry supply and demand pattern has improved significantly
Since 2014, the viscose staple fiber industry has basically no new production capacity put into production, and the industry’s operating rate has bottomed out and gradually recovered. According to statistics, in 2015, the output of viscose staple fiber was 3.18 million tons, and the average operating rate reached 86%. The downstream textile industry is currently in the off-season, but the price of viscose staple fiber remains relatively high. Compared with the same period in 2014 and 2015, the price has increased significantly, indicating that the supply and demand pattern of the viscose staple fiber industry has improved significantly.
From January to June, in terms of production capacity, the 50,000-ton viscose staple fiber production line of Xinjiang Tarim Agricultural Comprehensive Development Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation in Alar, Xinjiang, and the production capacity of viscose staple fiber Increased to 3.77 million tons. In terms of operating rate, according to statistics, the average operating rate of viscose staple fiber in the first half of the year was 90.00%, a significant increase from 84.47% in the same period in 2015.
The export situation of viscose staple fiber is also good. According to statistics, in May, the total export volume of viscose staple fiber was 18,393 tons, a year-on-year increase of 103.84% and a month-on-month increase of 27.24%. From January to May, viscose staple fiber is exported